I believe inflation is transitory and caused by the Covid Pandemic and its shock to the global Supply Chain and governments' responses. The Supply Chain issue has exposed the California ports and their restrictive trade practices that have caused the bottlenecks. Also, wages needed to rise to help offset the wealth gap. This will be very beneficial. The fact is there is still to much supply in the world and not enough demand, hence low inflation to deflation. And technology has been a deflationary force because of its productivity characteristics.
Excellent! I lived through the 70's and watched my mom and dad go broke on a farm. In 1973, everything looked great, in 1983, everything was 4 times higher, but our goods and services fell behind the devaluation of the dollar. Service on interest killed anyone trying to finance their business, for us buy cattle, etc. However, many did well if they could get govt contracts to build, etc. Consumer goods like cars became crappy reflecting the nations mood. People lost interest in the "quality" of their work, I truly think it began the wealth disparity we see today. I think inflation is 100% govt policy mistakes. My view is that inflation will accelerate until it becomes a 1981 crisis again, because our leaders are so gutless, so pandering to ideology, that we will be forced to repeat history.
Howard Marks gets it. We don't know. IMHO, most experts don't understand precisely because they must be conformists. Whether in private of public sector, they can't say, "We have the wrong metrics and tools." Can we accurately measure all the self-starters on eBay, shopify, metaverse platforms, or even the grey market? They are working but may not be counted. Do we count crypto in money supply?
If massive $$s flow to t-bills in portfolios managed by formulas, we push down t-bill rates. This is not an investment strategy. It's just old asset allocation theory put into practice.
We may be under-reporting the number of people working; And artificially lowering rates. Good? Bad? ???
I believe inflation is transitory and caused by the Covid Pandemic and its shock to the global Supply Chain and governments' responses. The Supply Chain issue has exposed the California ports and their restrictive trade practices that have caused the bottlenecks. Also, wages needed to rise to help offset the wealth gap. This will be very beneficial. The fact is there is still to much supply in the world and not enough demand, hence low inflation to deflation. And technology has been a deflationary force because of its productivity characteristics.
Excellent! I lived through the 70's and watched my mom and dad go broke on a farm. In 1973, everything looked great, in 1983, everything was 4 times higher, but our goods and services fell behind the devaluation of the dollar. Service on interest killed anyone trying to finance their business, for us buy cattle, etc. However, many did well if they could get govt contracts to build, etc. Consumer goods like cars became crappy reflecting the nations mood. People lost interest in the "quality" of their work, I truly think it began the wealth disparity we see today. I think inflation is 100% govt policy mistakes. My view is that inflation will accelerate until it becomes a 1981 crisis again, because our leaders are so gutless, so pandering to ideology, that we will be forced to repeat history.
Howard Marks gets it. We don't know. IMHO, most experts don't understand precisely because they must be conformists. Whether in private of public sector, they can't say, "We have the wrong metrics and tools." Can we accurately measure all the self-starters on eBay, shopify, metaverse platforms, or even the grey market? They are working but may not be counted. Do we count crypto in money supply?
If massive $$s flow to t-bills in portfolios managed by formulas, we push down t-bill rates. This is not an investment strategy. It's just old asset allocation theory put into practice.
We may be under-reporting the number of people working; And artificially lowering rates. Good? Bad? ???