I especially appreciate this bit; "When everyone is on to an idea, the price is elevated," This may explain ARKK's correction (currently at about 50% of peak. The idea of investing in innovation is great, until everyone piled in without serious thought. Investing in innovators has to account for DCF, the long term cost of capital, and the odds that today's innovative winners have to continue their innovation and leadership for a long time.
By contrast, very few people are "on to" TSMC as an innovative leader. And the perceived risk of an invasion by China, makes it valuation even more attractive.
I especially appreciate this bit; "When everyone is on to an idea, the price is elevated," This may explain ARKK's correction (currently at about 50% of peak. The idea of investing in innovation is great, until everyone piled in without serious thought. Investing in innovators has to account for DCF, the long term cost of capital, and the odds that today's innovative winners have to continue their innovation and leadership for a long time.
By contrast, very few people are "on to" TSMC as an innovative leader. And the perceived risk of an invasion by China, makes it valuation even more attractive.
Excellent post. Your idea of asymmetry goes to the essence of knowledge, what you know and when you know it, when yin does not balance yang:
Neurons Create Knowledge
https://suddendisruption.blogspot.com/